{"id":16444,"date":"2023-09-20T08:58:38","date_gmt":"2023-09-20T13:58:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/whatsappmexico.com\/?p=16444"},"modified":"2023-09-20T13:58:49","modified_gmt":"2023-09-20T13:58:49","slug":"sube-oecd-estimado-pib-mexico-2023-y-2024-a-3-3-y-2-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/whatsappmexico.com\/?p=16444","title":{"rendered":"Sube OECD estimado PIB M\u00e9xico 2023 y 2024 a 3.3% y 2.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"

En su informe provisional de septiembre, \u201cafrontar la inflaci\u00f3n y un bajo crecimiento\u201d, agrega que la inflaci\u00f3n del pa\u00eds sit\u00faa ahora en 5.4% para este a\u00f1o, desde la tasa de 5.9% anterior<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n

La Organizaci\u00f3n para la Cooperaci\u00f3n y el Desarrollo Econ\u00f3micos (OECD, por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s) dijo el martes que elev\u00f3 sus pron\u00f3sticos de crecimiento para M\u00e9xico a 3.3%, desde el 2.6% de su proyecci\u00f3n de junio.<\/p>\n

De igual forma elev\u00f3 sus estimados de PIB para 2024 a 2.5%, desde el previo de 2.1%.<\/p>\n

Los dos ajustes forman parte de su informe provisional de septiembre, \u201cafrontar la inflaci\u00f3n y un bajo crecimiento\u201d, donde se\u00f1ala que la proyecci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n del pa\u00eds en este a\u00f1o baja de 5.9% a 5.4%.<\/p>\n

No obstante, para 2024, M\u00e9xico tendr\u00eda una inflaci\u00f3n de 3.9%, mayor que la de 3.7% prevista en junio pasado.<\/p>\n

En su Perspectiva de Crecimiento Global de junio, el organismo internacional hab\u00eda elevado el crecimiento del PIB mexicano de 2.5% a 2.6%, en respuesta a \u201cun s\u00f3lido mercado interno\u201d, apuntalado por el consumo y el empleo.<\/p>\n

M\u00e9xico alcanz\u00f3 tasas de desocupaci\u00f3n en m\u00ednimos hist\u00f3ricos en mayo, mientras que una pol\u00edtica de incremento en los salarios reales ha estimulado el consumo privado.<\/p>\n

En esta ocasi\u00f3n, en su informe provisional de septiembre el organismo internacional no dedica un cap\u00edtulo especial para el pa\u00eds. Sin embargo, destac\u00f3 a M\u00e9xico en el grupo de pa\u00edses emergentes que promediar\u00e1n una tasa de inflaci\u00f3n menor al 7% durante este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

\u201cSe proyecta que la inflaci\u00f3n general de los precios al consumidor para las econom\u00edas de mercados emergentes del G20, como grupo, caiga de 9.1% en 2022 a 7.2% en 2023, y a 6.6% en 2024, con una inflaci\u00f3n que disminuir\u00e1 a menos del 4% en Brasil, Indonesia y M\u00e9xico, y permanecer\u00e1 muy bajo en China\u201d, subraya.<\/p>\n

\n

Margen para bajar tasas<\/strong><\/h4>\n

La OECD destaca que M\u00e9xico, entre otras econom\u00edas emergentes como Brasil, India e Indonesia, cuentan con el margen para \u201cuna modesta flexibilizaci\u00f3n\u201d de su tasa de pol\u00edtica monetaria para 2024.<\/p>\n

La tasa referencial del pa\u00eds ubica en 11.25% desde mayo pasado, tras 15 incrementos consecutivos iniciados en junio de 2021 en los esfuerzos del banco central mexicano, Banxico, por mantener a raya la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

El mercado, que en un principio estim\u00f3 que los primeros recortes de las tasas de inter\u00e9s se dar\u00edan en el \u00faltimo tramo de 2023, aplaz\u00f3 su proyecci\u00f3n para febrero del a\u00f1o entrante.<\/p>\n

Lo anterior significar\u00eda una reducci\u00f3n prevista de 25 puntos base (pb), para colocar la tasa de pol\u00edtica en 11% hasta entonces.<\/p>\n

\u201cHay margen para una modesta flexibilizaci\u00f3n de las pol\u00edticas durante el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o en todas estas econom\u00edas, siempre que las presiones inflacionarias se mantengan bien contenidas\u201d, sostuvo la entidad.<\/p>\n

Complicaciones<\/strong><\/h4>\n

La OECD estima ahora que la econom\u00eda mundial crezca a una tasa de 3% durante 2023, frente al pron\u00f3stico previo de 2.7%, y \u201cantes de desacelerarse al 2.7%\u201d en 2024, desde el anterior de 2.9%.<\/p>\n

\u201cSe espera que una parte desproporcionada del crecimiento mundial en 2023-24 siga proviniendo de Asia, a pesar de la recuperaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil de lo esperado en China\u201d, argument\u00f3.<\/p>\n

La econom\u00eda mundial demostr\u00f3 ser m\u00e1s resistente de lo esperado en la primera mitad de 2023, pero las perspectivas de crecimiento siguen estando menguadas ante una recuperaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil de lo previsto en China.<\/p>\n

El PIB del gigante asi\u00e1tico se reduce de 5.4% a 5.1% para este a\u00f1o, mientras que para 2024 pasa de 5.1% hasta 4.6%.<\/p>\n

\u201cUna desaceleraci\u00f3n m\u00e1s pronunciada en China arrastrar\u00eda a\u00fan m\u00e1s el crecimiento en todo el mundo\u201d, advierte la entidad.<\/p>\n

La inflaci\u00f3n del G20 para este y el a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo se estiman en 6% y 4.8%, para cada caso.<\/p>\n

\u201cpodr\u00eda seguir siendo m\u00e1s persistente de lo previsto, y a\u00fan es posible que se produzcan m\u00e1s perturbaciones en los mercados de energ\u00eda y alimentos\u201d, alerta.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En su informe provisional de septiembre, \u201cafrontar la inflaci\u00f3n y un bajo crecimiento\u201d, agrega que la inflaci\u00f3n del pa\u00eds sit\u00faa ahora en 5.4% para este a\u00f1o, desde la tasa de 5.9% anterior La Organizaci\u00f3n para la Cooperaci\u00f3n y el Desarrollo…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16446,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16444","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nacional"],"yoast_head":"\nSube OECD estimado PIB M\u00e9xico 2023 y 2024 a 3.3% y 2.5% -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/whatsappmexico.com\/?p=16444\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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